The Reds have the most influential player in Super Rugby Pacific, but the Brumbies have the overall edge in the pecking order of the Australian contenders.
That’s the verdict of former Wallaby and Stan Sport expert Morgan Turinui, rating every Aussie team for The Roar, ahead of the competition’s launch on Friday night.
Turinui said Queensland’s Taniela Tupou was the difference between the Reds and Brumbies last year as they fought for ascendency in Super Rugby AU and will be a key man again.
“Taniela is the most influential footballer in the competition,” Turinui said.
“He’s getting better and better. He’s knowing his body better about what he can do and needs to do.
“He’s still young and we haven’t seen the best of him. 2023 might be the perfect year where you see the peak Taniela Tupou.”
Turinui said the Reds prop will take a couple of rounds to warm into his best form.
“He needs to if we’re looking at it from a Wallabies point of view as well,” said Turinui.
“He’s got a big year ahead of him this year and next. His workload, and how happy he is doing what he’s doing, is really important. If the Reds do the right thing early by Australian rugby, he’ll be firing later on.”
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Here’s how Turinui sees each Australian team performing
Reds might take time to warm up
Turinui says there are questions over the Reds early in the campaign after a difficult run into the season, with Covid affecting several of their stars, and issues over their No.2 with Brandon Paenga-Amosa departing and Alex Mafi coming back from injury.
While he believes they will be better set up this year overall, and they were affected by emotion in Super Rugby TT last time out having won the Australian comp, it might be a slow start from the Queenslanders.
“I’m not quite brave enough to tip the Rebels against the Reds this week but the only reason I’m not is they’re missing Pone Fa’amausili, Andrew Kellaway and Rob Leota,” Turinui said.
“If those three guys had been playing I might well have picked the Rebels.
“It’s not been an easy, uneventful, operation into round one for the Reds, which makes the Rebels a real danger game.
“The Reds are going to be good – why? – because they’ve got good players and despite the unsettled lead in what they do have is a settled squad and a settled coach.
“More and more in Australia we’re starting to learn how much a settled program helps. They have really obvious progression from Queensland 20s into the Reds squad.
“They’ll be first or second of the Aussie teams and they’ll make the finals of Super Rugby Pacific but they’ll be judged on how many Kiwi teams they can knock off and how deep they can go. The way the competition is I can see them finishing top 6.”
Waratahs have been impressive
Turinui said he has changed his mind about the Tahs’ prospects in recent days after watching them play Queensland in Roma.
“Talking now is a very different conversation to what I would have said last week,” said Turinui.
“Before Christmas I said the over and under for them would be something like three wins, going from last year.
“I would have thought internally and privately, even maybe away from the players, they would take anything from five wins and up.”
While acknowledging the Reds were missing some strong talent in the trial, he felt the Tahs handled the game well and he saw some changes in the way they approached it under rookie Super Rugby coach Darren Coleman.
“It’s fraught with danger to read too much into trial form but I had a good chat with some of the coaches after the game,” Turinui said.
Waratahs Head Coach Darren Coleman. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images for Rugby Australia)
“I like some of the stuff they’re trying to do in defence – there was a harder edge to their defence on the weekend, especially in the middle of the park where it counts.
“I really liked the physicality they showed, they tried a few different things . . It looked like they’d been working on a ‘choke tackle’ which is what the Irish do where they try to hold players up.”
Turinui said the introduction of Kiwi lock Geoff Cridge, after two years in the Super Rugby wilderness, was a good call by Coleman.
“The danger would have been a guy who knows and appreciates Shute Shield as much as anyone, would have thought he had to promote from Shute Shield,” Turinui said.
“It was a really mature decision to find a tried and true more experienced player for the lock position and it’s what he really needed.
“He’ll know every single footy player playing Shute Shield but Super Rugby is very different and he needed to shore up that front five straight away.”
Defence has been a priority in the pre-season with Jason Gilmore retaining his responsibility for that in a four-man coaching unit that Turinui says already looks cohesive.
He adds that depth will be the key for the Tahs: “If they can keep Izaia Perese on the park … and Jake Gordon is probably the most important player for any of the Australian teams, just because the guys coming through behind him are development players.”
Key to their hopes could be making a strong start against Fijian Drua on Friday night.
“It sounds silly but this game, round one is already crucial,” Turinui said.
“If you’re the Tahs and can go from no wins to sneak into the finals in 8th, this is already a must win game.
“This is probably the best time to play the Drua – they’ll get better and better the more they play together. This is a real opportunity for the Tahs.”
Our experts Brett McKay, Harry Jones and Geoff Parkes preview the Super Rugby week one on The Roar Rugby Podcast. Click below to play or follow on Spotify.
Brumbies are well set up to beat the Kiwis
Turinui believes the Brumbies should finish the highest of the Australian teams and have the ability to give the New Zealand sides a fright.
“It’s a very smart operation, they don’t just throw things out because they’re under pressure to succeed,” Turinui said.
“They were an inch off winning AU last year. They’re a team that are well set up to beat Kiwi teams.”
He said losing out to the Reds in the Super AYU final had thrown them off course before the start of SRTT, and this year’s format should suit them better.
“They had had so many injuries by the time SR au finished last year they were emotionally and physically spent by coming up short in the Super AU final and they never recovered,” Turinui said.
“I can see them much better set up to perform in this competition. A lot will come down to how Noah Lolesio goes at 10 as everything else around him looks set up really well.
“Their maul gives them so many options, makes teams scared around their discipline and gives them opportunities to play different variations around that.”
He said the club was well set up to push on after last year’s strong season and the fact they have sorted next year’s coaching succession plan with Dan McKellar handing over to Stephen Larkham, eased the prospect of unrest.
“They’re a settled program with a good coach and they have several players getting better and better – Rob Valetini will be better again, Len Ikitau will be better again. They have the players to come in when their starters are out so they’ll deal with the attrition rate of Super Rugby better than the other sides in Australia.”
Rebels can be a giant killer
Turniui said the consistent theme around the Rebels had been having patience for them to build. That’s now wearing thin.
“The problem is they’re 10 years in. It’s almost too late for patience,” said Turinui.
He is, however, optimistic about the mix of young talent with more experienced players, although sees Marika Koroibete’s departure as significant because of his work ethic.
They will also have to start the season on the back foot due to injuries with Andrew Kellaway, Rob Leota, Trevor Hosea and Pone Fa’amausili all the opener against the Reds.
Coach Kevin Foote has backed young No.10 Carter Gordon but there is experience in the ranks with Matt Toomua, Reece Hodge, Matt Philip and Joe Powell.
“They have some key linchpins in that backline and a great balance in the forward pack of young tyros and experienced footballers – it’s a really good workmanlike squad and I can see them being consistent,” Turinui said.
“They might not reach the heights of a Brumbies or Reds but if you’re not on your game I can see them picking off teams.
“Toomua at No.12 will be great for Carter Gordon and how he progresses this year will be really important.
“There’s just enough there. I reckon they’re contenders for 8th-10th spot – one or two close wins could project them into the finals, one or two close losses could see them miss out.”
Force will need time
While far from the finished product, Turinui sees the Force as potentially the competition’s big improvers this campaign.
“Manasa Mataele gives them an X Factor on the wing, which they need and they’ve picked up some good young talent from the Brumbies,” said Turinui.
“They’ll need time but they’ve got the right people around them to help them push through.
“Richard Kahui will come off the bench and play a mentor role, I like Issak Fines-Leleiwasa and they’ll have that combination with Ian Prior.
“They’re building a squad that’s good but they do need to step up again. I think they’re also in that 8th-10th range where there’s not that much between teams.”
Watch every match of the Super Rugby Pacific on the Home of Rugby, Stan Sport. Round 1 kicks off this weekend with Waratahs v Fijian Drua (Friday 7pm AEDT), Reds v Rebels (Saturday 7pm) and Brumbies v Force (Sunday 1:30pm AEDT). All streaming ad-free, live and on demand only on Stan Sport.
To start your 7 day free trial visit Stan.com.au/rugby