Russian consumers of luxury European goods and American fast food are learning the lessons of what economists describe as the “deglobalizing” effects of the Ukraine war. So are families in developing countries dependent on Ukrainian wheat, and even German automakers whose supply chains for parts run through Ukraine.

But do the war and Western efforts to punish Russia portend the end of heightened globalization?

Some analysts point to Europe’s newfound determination to wean itself from Russian energy, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to forge an alternative to the Western-led global economy, and conclude that indeed globalization is down for the count. But many others caution that no one should expect its full demise.

Michael Desch, a Notre Dame professor of international relations, notes, “There are elements of globalization that … are going to be hard to undo, no matter who wants to move beyond them.”

And Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says China will be the economic behemoth to monitor for clues to globalization’s prospects.

“The Chinese are going to double down on making sure they are not going to be as vulnerable as Russia to Western pressures,” she says, “while at the same time acting to protect their position in the global economy.”

Washington

Fans of Britain’s Chelsea football club were shocked to discover early last month that Russia’s war in Ukraine meant they could no longer buy tickets to the team’s matches or purchase Chelsea gear.

The reason: Chelsea’s owner, Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was slapped with Western sanctions barring him from profiting from his properties. The issue was soon resolved with an agreement that redirects team profits to victims of the Ukraine war.

Still, the disruption gave Chelsea fans the smallest of tastes of how Russia’s invasion of a neighboring country in violation of international law is having an impact on globalization.

In similar ways, Russian consumers of luxury European goods and American fast-food offerings are learning the lessons of what a growing number of international economists describe as the “deglobalizing” effects of the Ukraine war and Western efforts to punish Russia for launching it. So are families in developing countries dependent on Ukrainian wheat, and even German automakers whose supply chains for parts run through Ukraine.

But does the war portend the end of the post-Cold War era of heightened globalization? The decadeslong trend creating more interdependent economies has streamlined the production of goods even as it extended supply chains, shifted production to developing countries while extending prosperity to hundreds of millions, and created vast fortunes for businesses able to navigate the new global topography.