The central storyline for this weekend’s men’s Final Four in new Orleans is obvious. So obvious that there’s not even a point in addressing it here.
Instead, let’s look at four other reasons that you should be focused on, interested in and excited about the final three games of the 2021-22 men’s college basketball season.
1. The North Carolina fan emotional rollercoaster
To me, the most intriguing aspect of Duke and North Carolina’s first NCAA tournament meeting happening in the Final Four isn’t Coach K or even how the players handle the gravity of the moment, it’s the North Carolina fan base.
Before this week, Tar Heel fans had it all from a rivalry perspective. The entire sports world had an eye on Durham as UNC gave Coach K the ultimate retirement gift: A 94-81 ass-kicking in Krzyzewski’s final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. A clearly perturbed K having to speak to a large group of fans, family and former players in a pre-scheduled postgame ceremony almost felt almost too good to be true.
It’s the type of rivalry moment that you get forever … unless your rival goes on to beat you in a bigger, even more hyped meeting one or four weeks later. UNC seemed to be clear after losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament semifinals, and they even got the added bonus of watching the Hokies go on to blast Duke by 15 in in the title game 24 hours later.
Now, Carolina fans are playing rivalry roulette.
If you win on Saturday night, it’s the greatest thing ever. The forever rivalry trump card. The only thing sweeter than sending Coach K out of Cameron Indoor for the last time as a loser would be sending Coach K out for the last time, period, as a loser. To do it in the Final Four, in the first NCAA tournament meeting ever between college basketball’s most prominent rivals, well, that’s a dream even the most anarchic of Carolina fans couldn’t have possibly conjured up.
But if you lose …
It doesn’t completely wipe away the euphoria of March 5, but there’s no way to pretend it wouldn’t be a significant blow. Instead of being able to bring up the 94-81 win with zero hesitation in mixed company, UNC fans would be faced with a new reality where any reference to Coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor would be rebuked immediately with: “What happened a month later?” Engaging in the conversation further would surely open the door for mention of the fact that Duke won the season series and that, perhaps, the Blue Devils ultimately sent Krzyzewski out on top with his sixth national championship.
The stakes are extraordinarily high for everyone involved in this, but it isn’t difficult to make the case that North Carolina fans — especially the ones who really get into the Tobacco Road rivalry — have more on the line than anyone.
2. Potential Kansas awkwardness
Kansas might not be the betting favorite to cut down the nets in New Orleans (that’s Duke), but the Jayhawks are the last No. 1 seed standing and it wouldn’t shock anyone if they had two wins remaining in their 2021-22 season.
NCAA President Mark Emmert avoided some potential awkwardness when the 2020 NCAA tournament — which was set to be headlined by Kansas as the No. 1 overall seed — was canceled because of COVID. There won’t be anywhere to hide if KU gets the job done inside the Superdome on Saturday and Monday.
Kansas is facing five Level I violations (the most severe) stemming from the FBI’s probe into college basketball, a story which broke all the way back in September of 1562 2017. Three of those Level I violations are pointed directly at KU head coach Bill Self.
While coaches like Rick Pitino (Louisville), Mark Gottfried (NC State … and Cal State Northridge), Sean Miller (Arizona) and Will Wade (LSU) have all lost jobs at least in part due to the corruption scandal, Self has not only remained at Kansas, he’s thrived. The Jayhawks went to the Final Four in 2018, were a 4-seed in 2019, were set to be the pre-tournament favorites in 2020, were a 3-seed in 2021, and are now here in New Orleans for their 15th Final Four.
If the success alone wasn’t enough, there was also the “Late Night at the Phog” season tip-off event that featured a performance from Snoop Dogg complete with women dancing on poles and the rapper shooting a money gun into the crowd. Self, who had been hit with allegations from the NCAA just days prior, was also there rocking gold chains and an Adidas shirt.
No one knows exactly what to expect when the NCAA/IARP finally announces Kansas’ punishment at some point between this summer and the fall of 2067, but it’s safe to assume that Self will be facing some sort of personal ramifications. Don’t expect any of this to be addressed before, during or after the television coverage of Saturday’s or (potentially) Monday’s games, but that doesn’t mean that people are aware.
Everyone likes seeing Mark Emmert — or anyone from the NCAA, really — uncomfortable. The potential for that to happen this weekend in The Big Easy is pretty high.
3. Duke’s late-game excellence
For Duke/Coach K haters, the most frustrating thing about this run by the Blue Devils has been its validity. There have been no extremely questionable calls at extremely important times, no insanely flukey breaks that “only Duke would get”. The Blue Devils have simply played up to their potential and been better than all four of their opponents thus far.
At no time has their prowess been on more of a complete display than in the final minutes of their second round win over Michigan State and their Sweet 16 triumph over Texas Tech.
On the first Sunday of the tournament, Michigan State led Duke, 70-65, and Coach K’s career appeared to be on life support. The Devils then found a way to play perhaps their five best minutes of the season (up to that point) in the season’s most crucial spot. They ended the game on a 20-6 run, which included an 8-0 run, and forced the Spartans into missing seven of their final nine shots.
With the contest hanging in the balance, it was sophomore guard Jeremy Roach — not Duke stars Paolo Banchero or Trevor Keels or Wendell Moore Jr. — who delivered the game’s biggest shot.
“The last five minutes, I think they made every shot,” Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo said after the game.
He wasn’t wrong. Duke connected on all five of its field goal attempts in the game’s final five minutes, only misfiring at the free-throw line.
Things looked even more dire in the next round against third-seeded Texas Tech, which actually entered the evening as a 1-point favorite over the Dukies. After trailing the Red Raiders by four at halftime and playing from behind for the first 11 minutes of the second half, Coach K’s team once again found a new gear.
Duke did not miss a shot in the game’s final 8 minutes and 25 seconds, connecting on their final eight field goal attempts and scoring on nine of their last 12 offensive possessions. When the final horn sounded, Texas Tech had allowed an opponent over the 75-point mark for the first time all season, as the Devils rolled into the Elite 8 with a 78-73 victory.
There’s little debate that Duke is the most naturally talented of the four teams still standing. Banchero might be the No. 1 pick in this June’s NBA draft. Griffin should be a top 10 pick, and Moore as well as big man Mark Williams could go in the first round as well. If you’re looking to see next-level talent firing on all cylinders this weekend, pay the closest attention to the final minutes of a tight game involving the Blue Devils.
4. Villanova looking to make history
Villanova isn’t just the best free-throw shooting team in the country, the Wildcats are currently the best free-throw shooting team in the history of college basketball. ‘Nova is shooting 83.0 percent from the charity stripe this season. Unless that drops significantly this weekend in New Orleans, the Wildcats will break the 1983-84 Harvard Crimson’s all-time record of 82.2 percent.
At 75.0 percent, injured second-leading scorer Justin Moore was actually the worst free-throw shooter of Villanova’s core group of contributors, so his absence shouldn’t hurt them in their quest for history. Collin Gillespie (90.5%), Brandon Slater (87.8%), Caleb Daniels (85.1%), Eric Dixon (82.5%) and Jermaine Samuels (77.5%), all shoot an absurdly high percentage from the stripe and have been lights out from the line in late-game situations.
In four NCAA tournament games so far, Villanova is 53-of-59 from the charity stripe, good for 90.0 percent. The Wildcats were a perfect 15-of-15 from the line in their Elite 8 win over Houston.