Russia’s five-week invasion of Ukraine has sparked major questions for China over its support for the Kremlin. Beijing assured the EU on Friday, April 1, that it would try to bring about peace in Ukraine but on its own terms. European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have called on China to help end the bloody war. Russia’s neighbour has been its most important ally in recent years but is under increasing pressure to help stop the current conflict.
However, Beijing also has a strategic interest in maintaining peace in Europe due to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has been derailed by the war in Ukraine.
The BRI is China’s huge development strategy linking the country to European markets along the ancient trade routes Silk Road.
Dubbed the “new silk road”, the project has been thrown off course as rail freight through Russia has been impacted by western sanctions.
However, despite the blow to Chinese trade, political expert Peter Frankopan has suggested that Beijing may be able to avert the worst impacts of Russia’s invasion.
The professor of global history at the University of Oxford said China will be “thinking about the long-term”.
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Speaking about the BRI, he told Express.co.uk: “It is in China’s constitution. So, it is not just Xi, it is part of China’s future.
“With the interruption of trade lines – there are all sorts of other routes which trade can take.
“But China, like Britain, like the US, and a lot of countries, thinks about the long-term.”
He added: “If there is disruption for a few weeks, a few months, even a few years, it is about what things look like in the next 20 or 30 years.
“And that, I think, is the key question in all of this: Is this a small hiccup in all of our connections?
He sent Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a note about the importance of the “China-Ukraine strategic partnership” in relation to the BRI.
In recent weeks, Xi Jinping has not criticised his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over the war.
However, the Chinese President has condemned armed conflicts between states more generally, although without referring to Russia and Ukraine.
Prof Frankopan claimed there were now signs that Chinese opinion of Russia is shifting.
He said: “The Chinese to start with were all very supportive of Russia and thought it was all the West’s fault.
“Now, I think that that is starting to change a little bit. Russia is imploding.”