The men’s NCAA tournament is annually defined by its unpredictability, and it has lived up to that reputation once again this year. The field lost a national title contender on the very first day when No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s pulled off a stunning upset of the Kentucky Wildcats. The second weekend wasn’t any kinder to the favorites, with championship front-runners Arizona and Gonzaga both exiting on the same day in the Sweet 16.
Now we’re left with eight teams still standing that each believe they have what to it takes ultimately cut down the nets on April 11 in New Orleans.
This season has felt wide open from the start after last year’s finalists Gonzaga and Baylor lost so many key pieces from their rosters. That feels even more true now. Before the regional finals begin, we ranked the eight teams remaining in the men’s NCAA tournament field by how likely they are to win the national championship.
8. No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s Peacocks
Giving Kentucky the worst loss of the John Calipari era wasn’t enough for Saint Peter’s. Neither was beating Murray State to become the third No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16. The magic of the Peacocks faced its biggest test yet against Purdue after a week of national hoopla, but somehow Shaheen Holloway’s group pulled through once again. The Peacocks’ 67-64 win over Purdue makes them the first No. 15 seed to ever reach the regional final of the men’s NCAA tournament. The feat is even more impressive than it sounds: no seed lower than a No. 12 has ever been this far in the tournament.
Saint Peter’s run defies all logical explanation, but our Mike Rutherford did a great job putting the run into proper context. Daryl Banks III and Doug Edert have grown into the perimeter stars for the Peacocks. Senior big man KC Ndefo is a three-time MAAC Defensive Player of the Year. Holloway has his team playing truly inspired ball, and they don’t seem satisfied yet.
7. No. 2 seed Villanova Wildcats
Villanova lacks of the talent of Jay Wright’s best teams this season, but the style of play that made his Wildcats one of the most successful programs in America over the last decade is still dividends. Nova plays extremely slow on offense, chucks a ton of threes, and shoots free throws more accurately than any team in the country. While they lack an elite rim protector defensively, these Wildcats close out hard on every open shooter. It’s a formula that has helped Nova win 13 of their its 14 games, and again get them back into the Elite Eight.
Nova’s Sweet 16 win over Michigan wasn’t always pretty. The offense went more than five minutes with a bucket in the second half, and Michigan got plenty of good looks at the rim offensively that just didn’t go down. Nova has the potential to play better offensively with a five-man lineup that can all dribble, pass, and threaten the defense from three-point range. As our Mike Rutherford pointed out, Villanova is now 19-3 over the last six NCAA tournaments. The names have changed, but this is still Villanova basketball.
6. No. 4 seed Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas felt like they were overlooked in a loaded SEC all season, but February wins against conference juggernauts Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee showed the Razorbacks could compete with anyone. Now the Hogs are back in the Elite Eight for the second straight season, this time by knocking off national championship favorite Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. Head coach Eric Musselman has a veteran group that is executing at an incredibly high level right now. It’s fair to believe that if Arkansas can beat Gonzaga, they can beat anyone.
Sophomore center Jaylin Williams is the glue that holds the Hogs together. He’s a phenomenal defensive rounder, a master of the flip shot, and can be counted on to take several charges per game. Senior guard JD Notae can be turnover prone, but he’s a skilled halfcourt shot creator who can get a bucket in a pinch. The rest of the Razorbacks play tough defense and do their best to manufacture offense without great shooters on the perimeter. Musselman’s team will have to continue to grind out wins with disciplined game-plans, but it feels foolish to bet against them after watching what they did to Gonzaga.
5. No. 10 seed Miami Hurricanes
Going 14-6 in the ACC is usually enough to get a team a comfy seed on Selection Sunday, but a few bad losses and a down year for the league overall pushed Miami to the 10-line. The Hurricanes came inches away from losing on a halfcourt buzzer-beater to USC in the first round, but since then The U has looked like a machine. Miami blew out Bruce Pearl and No. 2 seed Auburn in the round of 32, and then pulled away from Iowa State in the final 10 minutes of the Sweet 16 to punch the program’s first ever ticket to the Elite Eight. While it’s odd to see a double-digit seed reach the regional final, Miami’s mix of talent is a perfect match for March. It feels like they could keep advancing.
The Hurricanes don’t just have great guards — they have great guards with years of high-level college basketball experience. Kameron McGusty was a sophomore at Oklahoma when Trae Young enrolled in for 2017-2018 season. Charlie Moore is in his sixth year of college basketball and has played in the Pac-12, Big 12, Big East, and now ACC. Junior guard Isaiah Wong has started 70+ games for the Canes. Center Sam Waardenburg is a senior, too. McGusty (27 points) was the hero in the Sweet 16, but Miami has many guys who can play that role. Given that Kansas doesn’t have the most mobile bigs to defend the pick-and-roll, the Canes feel like they have a way better chance than a 10-seed normally does against a No. 1.
4. No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels
Hubert Davis’ first season in North Carolina was decidedly unremarkable through February. Then the Tar Heels went into Cameron Indoor Stadium for Coach K’s last ever home game and handed Duke a memorable loss that seemed to invigorate the team. UNC has been playing great ball ever since: they won their opener against Marquette by 32 points, knocked out No. 1 seed Baylor in overtime (after almost blowing a 25-point second half lead), then outlasted UCLA in a Final Four thriller. Yes, the Heels have gotten hot at the right time like every team still standing, but this is also a roster that always had the talent to get here.
Caleb Love didn’t fulfill his one-and-done hype coming into Carolina, but he’s been excellent as a sophomore. He had the best performance of his career against the Bruins, going off for 30 points on 6-of-13 shooting from three-point range. Co-star Brady Manek, a 6’9 wing who transferred in from Oklahoma, gives UNC a big shooter who can carry the offense for stretches. There’s also big man Armando Bacot, who cleans the offensive glass as well as any player left in the tournament. If North Carolina and Duke both win their Elite Eight games, the first ever NCAA tournament meeting between the archrivals will happen in the Final Four. The Heels just better not overlook Saint Peter’s before they get there.
3. No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks
The Elite Eight threatened to feature zero No. 1 seeds when Providence roared out of its first half funk and took a one-point lead over Kansas with under six minutes remaining in regulation. Jalen Wilson put the Jayhawks back in front two possessions later with an and-one finish, and KU would never trail again. Kansas has seemed inevitable in a Midwest Region that always felt like the easiest on the bracket, but credit Bill Self’s team for digging deep and doing what hardly anyone has been able to accomplish all year: beating the Friars in a close game.
Kansas has been searching for more consistency at point guard all season, and now they’ve found it at the perfect time with Remy Martin. The Arizona State transfer went off for a season-high 23 points against Providence, and has solidified a solid five-man lineup. Martin’s ascension has helped the Jayhawks overcome a shooting slump from star wing Ochai Agbaji, but the senior still made a big impact defensively with four blocks and two steals. David McCormack’s shaky ball screen defense can leave Kansas vulnerable against the right team, but for now the Jayhawks should feel great about being the last top seed left standing.
2. No. 5 seed Houston Cougars
This Houston run should not be possible. The Cougars lost all five starters from last year’s Final Four team coming into this season. Then they lost arguably their two best players in Tramon Mack and Marcus Sasser to season-ending injuries before the calendar flipped to 2022. While Houston faced another round of questions about its cupcake non-conference schedule, head coach Kelvin Sampson again has hits squad peaking at the right time. At this point, Houston feels like the scariest team in the field.
The Cougars might have a No. 5 seed next to their name, but they entered the tournament as the second best team in America according to KenPom’s formulas. That projection is looking dead on so far. Houston squeezed the life out of Illinois in the round of 32 before knocking out popular title pick Arizona with a suffocating defense and timely shooting. It’s impossible to out-coach a Sampson team, and this roster is stacked with athleticism at every spot on the floor. Beating a mega-talented Arizona team by double-figures should put the rest of the country on notice not to take these Cougars lightly.
1. No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils
Duke was in a tailspin heading into the NCAA tournament, losing Mike Krzyzewski’s last ever home game against archrival North Carolina and then getting walloped in the ACC tournament title game to an underdog Virginia Tech team. The Blue Devils always had the talent to go on a long run in March, but a leaky defense and inconsistent point guard play was holding them back. It would be easy to excuse Duke players for cracking under the enormous pressure of Coach K’s farewell tour, but somehow they’ve risen to the occasion from the moment the NCAA tournament started.
Duke trailed Michigan State by five points with five minutes in the round of 32, and trailed by two against Texas Tech with three minutes left. Both times, sophomore point guard Jeremy Roach — who was benched multiple times this season — helped save the Blue Devils with big shots in the clutch. Meanwhile, freshman star Paolo Banchero is playing like the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft (we’ve had him there since July), A.J. Griffin is knocking down almost every three, and Mark Williams is leveraging his immense 7’7 wingspan for easy buckets around the rim.
With favorites Gonzaga and Arizona both out, this tournament is setting up incredibly well for Coach K to get the fairytale ending he wants. Duke’s margin for error still feels pretty thin, but there’s no doubt this is the most talented team left standing.