Fifteen teams have already booked their spot at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
Forty-eight nations are still in the mix to join them, but only 17 berths remain, and all but three will be settled in qualifying games that will take place around the world in the next week and a half.
Here’s a look at the qualifying picture in each geographical region.
North America
Canada’s 36-year World Cup drought will soon be over.
With three games remaining, Canada tops the table in the final round of CONCACAF qualifying with a 7-0-4 record, and enjoys an eight-point advantage over fourth-place Panama. The United States and Mexico are tied for second place, four points behind Canada. Costa Rica is fifth, trailing Panama by a single point. The top three in the eight-team group automatically qualify for Qatar. The fourth-place team gets the chance to qualify via the intercontinental playoffs (more on that later).
The Canadians play away to Costa Rica (March 24) and Panama (March 30), and host Jamaica (March 27) in Toronto.
A win against Costa Rica would clinch a World Cup berth for Canada and send it back to the tournament for the first time since 1986 in Mexico, Canada’s only previous World Cup appearance. Even if Canada doesn’t win in Costa Rica, it could still clinch on Thursday if other results go its way, most notably a Panama loss.
Barring an unprecedented collapse, Canada will qualify for the World Cup. It’s just a matter of when it will happen during this international window, although coach John Herdman and the players insist nothing has been achieved.
“It’s tough because there’s so much you hear, so much from the outside. Even my own family members: ‘Oh my God, you’re almost there.’ It’s tough to ignore,” said Toronto FC midfielder Jonathan Osorio.
“But at the same time, I try to keep my feet on the ground. It still hasn’t happened yet. We have to make it happen.”
The United States and Mexico look to be solid bets to secure the other two automatic berths on offer in CONCACAF. However, they face each other Thursday in Mexico City, and a loss by either side could potentially open the door for Panama and Costa Rica to qualify in their place.
Europe
The following 10 nations won their group in the first round of the UEFA qualifiers to book their spot in Qatar: Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Serbia, Spain and Switzerland.
That leaves the 10 second-place finishers and the two best-performing Nations League sides (Austria and Czech Republic) to duke it out over three World Cup berths in the second round.
The 12 nations have been divided into three pathways, with the four teams in each bracket playing a one-legged mini-tournament. The winner of each bracket qualifies for the World Cup.
Path C is the most intriguing, as either Italy or Portugal will not qualify for Qatar. Fresh off winning Euro 2020, the Italians finished second in their group behind the Swiss, while a late goal by Serbia sunk Portugal on the final matchday of the first round, forcing Cristiano Ronaldo and his cohorts into this extra series of games.
Italy hosts North Macedonia on Thursday, while Turkey visits Portugal on the same day. The two winners will meet on March 29 to decide who moves on to the World Cup.
The Italians face the very possibility of missing their second consecutive World Cup, having previously qualified for every tournament since 1958. Portugal has played in every World Cup since 2002, but like Italy, they are also in danger of missing out.
Path A sees Wales host Austria this week, while the Scotland vs. Ukraine match has been postponed until June due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
In Path B, Russia was supposed to host Poland this week. But the Russia team was suspended from international competition by FIFA after Poland, Sweden and Czech Republic all refused to face them due to the conflict with Ukraine. Poland received a bye into the finals of this section. Sweden hosts the Czech Republic on Thursday, with the winner meeting Poland next week.
South America
Both Brazil (39 points) and Argentina (35) have already punched their tickets for Qatar, but there is still plenty to play for in the CONMEBOL region. Two more automatic berths are up for grabs, with the fifth-place finisher earning a spot in the intercontinental playoffs.
Ecuador (25), Uruguay, (22) and Peru (21) have the inside track on claiming the two automatic berths and the playoff spot. Venezuela (10) and Paraguay (13) have already been eliminated from contention, while Bolivia (15) can qualify for the World Cup only via the intercontinental playoffs.
Colombia reached the knockout stages of the past two World Cups, but is in danger of not qualifying for Qatar. The Colombians (17) sit seventh in the table, five points off automatic qualification, and four points away from the playoff. Both of their remaining games – home to Bolivia and away to Venezuela – are winnable. But if Peru defeats Paraguay at home in the final round, the Colombians will sit out this World Cup.
Chile (19) is in a similar situation, as it needs to overtake Peru and Uruguay to travel to Qatar. But their final two games present stiff challenges, as they will host first-place Brazil and then play on the road vs. Uruguay.
Asia
Qatar qualifies automatically as hosts, while Iran and South Korea have booked their spots at the World Cup by finishing as the top two teams in Group A of the third round of the Asian qualifiers.
Both automatic berths in Group B are still available, with Saudi Arabia (19 points), Japan (18) and Australia (15) in the mix.
Australia’s only realistic chance at automatic qualification is by beating Japan at home on March 24 and Saudi Arabia in Jeddah on March 29, but even that might not be enough. Japan’s other game is against Vietnam, and assuming the Japanese win, they’ll be tied on points with Australia, which means the final berth in Group B would be decided on goal difference.
Even if Australia doesn’t finish in the top two, it could still qualify via the intercontinental playoffs. The two third-place teams in the Asian region will meet in a single knockout game on June 7 with the winner advancing to the intercontinental playoffs against the fifth-place team from South America.
Africa
All five berths from the African region will be decided from March 25-29 when the 10 group winners from the second stage face off in the final round.
The five matchups: Egypt vs. Senegal, Cameroon vs. Algeria, Ghana vs. Nigeria, Mali vs. Tunisia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo vs. Morocco. The nations will face off in a home-and-home series, with the winner of each clinching a World Cup berth.
The most intriguing matchup has to be Egypt vs. Senegal, which is a rematch of last month’s African Cup of Nations final. The Senegalese outlasted their Egyptian counterparts in a penalty shootout to win the tournament for the first time in their history.
Ghana and Nigeria are the two most populous countries in west Africa, and their rivalry is one of the fiercest in African soccer. It’s been a decade since their previous meeting, but before that, they collided in three consecutive African Cup of Nations tournaments, with Ghana getting the better of Nigeria twice in the knockout rounds.
Oceania
New Zealand has qualified for the semifinals of this region’s qualifying campaign, and will be joined by three other teams by the end of Thursday.
The semifinals and final are scheduled from March 27-30, with the last team standing advancing to the intercontinental playoffs. As the perennial Oceania heavyweight, New Zealand is expected to win the region.
Intercontinental Playoffs
The final two World Cup berths will be decided in mid-June, when FIFA stages the intercontinental playoffs in Qatar.
The Asian qualifier faces the fifth-place nation from South America and the Oceania winner meets the fourth-place side from CONCACAF in single elimination matches. The winner of both games will clinch World Cup berths.
About the author: John Molinaro is one of the leading soccer journalists in Canada, having covered the game for over 20 years for several media outlets, including Sportsnet, CBC Sports and Sun Media. He is currently the editor-in-chief of TFC Republic, a website dedicated to in-depth coverage of Toronto FC and Canadian soccer. TFC Republic can be found here.