With the 2022 AFL season being a week away, I thought it was now time to put my crystal ball skills to the test and make five predictions for the upcoming season.
1. The new rules will work
Starting with a bit of a different one, my first major prediction for the 2022 AFL season is that the new rules we have seen implemented in the pre-season will be better for the game.
The two major ones are the stamping out of intentional time-wasting and also just being quicker to pay holding the ball. In the limited number of pre-season games, we saw it was shown dramatically that umpires will be cracking down on hostile behaviour towards the officials as well as not giving the ball back to the player quick enough.
The Melbourne-Carlton game was a good example of what the umpires will be trying to rule out – if a player is intentionally wasting time and doesn’t give the ball back quick enough then a 50m penalty will be called.
Yes, it will take some weeks for people to get used to this rule, and as with most new rules it will also take some time for the umpires to learn how to properly implement the rule, but once all the bumps are ironed over, I believe it will be a rule to help the game of footy.
The umps also seemed to finally be punishing hostile behaviour towards the umpires. For years the AFL has complained about that issue in the game – if you consistently punish it then it will die out.
I believe it’s the same for how the umpires have been adjudicating holding the ball. In the Collingwood-GWS game, the start of the game was electric with how free-flowing it was, and this was partly due to how the umpires were quick to call holding the ball, not just calling ball ups every time and killing the flow of the game.
After a few weeks of these rules being implemented, I firmly believe that they will make for a better game.
2. Two new key forwards will headline the All Australian team
Max King and Aaron Naughton. Those two men will be the two new key forwards in the All Australian team, an honour both men have yet to achieve. That would mean 2022 would be the first time since 2013 none of Lance Franklin, Jack Riewoldt and Tom Hawkins feature in the All Australian team.
Last year, Naughton looked like someone who was right there in being ready to take that next step, into becoming one of the top-five key forwards in the game.
Naughton’s ability to turn a game on its head with his marking ability showed many times for the Doggies, and with Josh Bruce out most of the season and younger key forwards like Luke Darcy and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan being the next ones up, expect Naughton to have many more targets and goal opportunities.
King, on the other hand, showed a glimpse of being a future Coleman Medalist with his ability to single-handedly will his side forward. His two games against West Coast are a direct example of this. With another pre-season behind him and more confidence in his set shot work, an All Australian season is looming.
Max King. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
3. Ollie Wines will have a Brownlow hangover
Ollie Wines’ 2021 was the best year of his career to date, winning his first Brownlow Medal, first All Australian, first club best and fairest, and a career-high in disposals (32 per game). An incredible season for a great player, but his 2022 won’t reach those heights, unfortunately.
With this being maybe the last season for this Port Adelaide team to have a crack at the flag it will be important for Ken Hinkley and the Port coaching staff to not rely on the usual suspects in terms of Wines and Travis Boak when it relates to midfield time.
Hinkley has already hinted at players such as Zak Butters to get more time through the midfield, and expect players such as Connor Rozee, Xavier Duursma and Josh Sinn to take some of the load off of Wines and Boak.
Expect a more well-rounded midfield for the Power, and with that, a season that sees Wines miss out on the Brownlow but also All Australian.
4. Geelong will not make the eight
It seems that it is finally upon us, the end of Geelong’s era of consistently being a top-four threat in the AFL.
An ageing side that has been so close to the top for so long, but never able to quite reach it, Geelong’s choice to keep reloading on ageing stars and having fire sales on their young players and picks will catch up with them this year.
Last year, Geelong was embarrassed in the finals, only beating an injured and suspension-riddled GWS team and being embarrassed by Port Adelaide and eventual premiers Melbourne.
Losing one of their most promising young players in Jordan Clarke doesn’t exactly help the issue of having an ageing list. A team whose core is made up of so many older stars and also having not fixed their biggest issues over the off-season, a fall from the top eight is what I expect for the 2022 Geelong Cats.
5. The Dogs will go one better in 2022
My final prediction displays who I have winning it all, as well as the Brownlow Medal. In 2021, the Bulldogs battled through three cutthroat finals all over Australia to make their way to the grand final against Melbourne.
And being up by 19 points halfway through the third quarter, led by their captain Marcus Bontempelli, who seemed to have two hands on the trophy and Norm Smith Medal, it seemed like the Bulldogs were going to win it all.
But then history happened, the Demons would go on to blitz the Dogs and kick 16 of the next 17 goals and win the game by 74 points in the most incredible fashion.
But this year will be different. Bontempelli will go one better in the Brownlow and claim the medal for the first time, and then the following Saturday he will lead his side to premiership glory against the same team that broke their hearts the year prior.