The NBA All-Star break is supposed to represent the midway point of the season, but in reality it marks the beginning of the stretch run before the playoffs. Most teams had already played more than 70 percent of their games by the time the season paused for All-Star Weekend. That means every game of the “second half” is crucial both for playoff seeding and finding the right mix in the rotation before the postseason begins.
The league schedule coming out of the All-Star break has felt even more important this year because of the flurry of activity at the trade deadline. The Philadelphia 76ers were welcoming James Harden, the Brooklyn Nets were trying to get Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons healthy, and teams like the Celtics and Pelicans were integrating major pieces in the backcourt.
It feels like the title picture is wide open this season, and the first week of games coming out of the break has offered even more evidence of which teams should be feared, and which teams might have peaked too early. Here are three teams rising and three teams falling out of the All-Star break.
3 NBA teams rising after the All-Star break
Philadelphia 76ers
There was a healthy amount of skepticism when the Sixers pulled off a massive trade for Harden at the deadline. Harden had not looked as explosive as he typically does during his time with the Nets this year, and his scoring had fallen off. How would he fit alongside another ball dominant superstar in Joel Embiid? How committed would he be after essentially quitting on two straight teams?
So far, Harden looks amazing through his first three games. We named the Sixers the biggest winner of the trade deadline, and prediction looks dead on to this point. Will it last?
Harden is averaging 27.3 points, 12.3 assists, and nine rebounds per game since he put on a Sixers’ uniform, numbers that are close to being in line with the best of his career averages. He seems to have a little more pop on his drives to the rim, and his passing in the pick-and-roll has been a big help for Embiid and the rest of his teammates so far. It’s also worth noting that the Sixers have played the Knicks twice and the Timberwolves once in this stretch, and the schedule is about to get a lot more difficult.
Philly definitely looks like it has a chance to reach the NBA Finals this year with Harden and Embiid leading the way. Just don’t expect it to always be this easy. How will Harden respond when adversity hits? That’s just one thing to monitor the rest of the season.
Boston Celtics
Since the calendar turned to 2022, the Celtics have the league’s No. 1 defense by a wide margin. They added another key defensive piece at the trade deadline by acquiring guard Derrick White from the Spurs, a lockdown point of attack defender who also provides quick ball movement and some shooting on the offensive end.
While many were quick to write Boston off after a slow start, they’re suddenly looking like one of the most formidable teams in the East. The Celtics are 4-1 out of the All-Star break, headlined by a win over the mighty Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday. Boston now sits No. 5 in the East and they’re only two games back of the No. 2 seed.
The Celtics have two isolation scorers in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who are perfect for playoff basketball. They have a dominant defense and an improved bench. They also have young big man in Robert Williams who feels like he could be a breakout star in the postseason if he can stay healthy. Boston is legitimately scary.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz were struggling when Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were in-and-out of the lineup in Jan. and Feb. It should be no surprise that Utah has looked excellent since getting its two stars back after the All-Star break.
The Jazz have won nine of their last 10 games, including a 3-0 mark out of the break with wins over Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston. The streak has pushed Utah within three games of Golden State Warriors for the No. 2 seed. Suddenly, this is again starting to look like the team that finished with the NBA’s best record and best net rating last season.
The Jazz’s starting five has been tremendous, and Danuel House has provided some shooting and defense off the bench. Last year’s postseason run was tanked by injuries to Mitchell and Mike Conley, and if both are at the top of their game this year, Utah will be a tough matchup for anyone.
We are still a little skeptical of the Jazz’s postseason chances in the West because of their shaky perimeter defense, but there should be little question this team has a puncher’s chance to reach the NBA Finals if everything clicks.
3 NBA teams falling after the All-Star break
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have been at or near the top of the East all season, but the combination of ongoing injury issues and a difficult schedule is starting to catch up with the team. After winning five straight games going into the All-Star break and beating Atlanta to start the symbolic second half, the Bulls have now lost three straight to the Grizzlies, Heat, and Hawks. The schedule doesn’t get any easier from here.
The Bulls are still without Alex Caruso and Lonzo Ball, and the defense has tanked because of it. Chicago had a top-10 unit before Grayson Allen took out Caruso in mid-air, and now they’ve fallen all the way to No. 20 on that end of the floor. Zach LaVine is also playing through a knee injury that has made him a bit tentative to attack the rim. DeMar DeRozan’s late game shot-making has been saving the Bulls all year, but it’s hard to win against good teams when his supporting cast is struggling to get stops.
As long as Ball and Caruso come back healthy, the Bulls should be ready to go in the playoffs. It’s just fair to wonder what seed they will ultimately get after what is shaping up to be a difficult end of the regular season.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors were anointed title favorites after a strong start to the year, but nothing has come easy for Golden State since the calendar flipped to 2022. Stephen Curry is a in prolonged shooting slump knocked him far off the MVP favorite status he once held. Klay Thompson is back in the lineup, but he understandably has yet to regain his former level defensively. The biggest reason for the Warriors’ decline is the absence of Draymond Green, who has been out since the middle of Jan. with a back injury.
The Warriors are 1-3 out of the All-Star break with two losses to Dallas and one to the Timberwolves. Green is reportedly a “couple weeks” from returning. Getting him back to 100 percent might be the single most important swing factor in the NBA title picture.
If Draymond is at his best, the Warriors still have a chance to win it all. If not, you wonder if Golden State will regret not dealing some of their young pieces for win-now veterans at the trade deadline. This core only has so many good years left, and failing to maximize a championship window would be a massive disappointment.
Los Angeles Lakers
Remember when the Lakers were pegged as preseason championship favorites? Whoops.
LA’s nightmare season is only getting more embarrassing coming out of the All-Star break. The Lakers have now lost seven of their last eight, including multiple defeats at the hands of a Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-less Clippers team and a pathetic performance in a loss to the Pelicans. Anthony Davis is injured again, the Russell Westbrook experiment has been a disaster, and head coach Frank Vogel feels like he’ll be fired as soon as the season ends.
The Lakers are wasting another brilliant LeBron James season. How LA plans to fix this dumpster fire will be one of the offseason’s biggest stories. This year’s team looks fully cooked.